Canada in 2026 – Surge in Undocumented Migrants Expected as Millions of Permits Expire

As 2026 begins, Canada faces a potential surge in undocumented migrants, with millions of temporary permits set to expire and mounting concern over how many individuals will remain in the country without legal status.

While immigration remains a cornerstone of Canadian policy, the scale of upcoming expiries has raised tough questions: how many people will leave, how many will transition, and how many will stay behind illegally?

Parliamentary testimony and departmental documents paint a picture of growing risk – and growing uncertainty.

Expiries

At the centre of the debate is a headline figure: 4.9 million visas and temporary immigration documents are set to expire between September 2024 and December 2025.

But here’s what that number really means:

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• It refers to documents, not individual people. One person may hold multiple visas or permits.
• It includes everything from tourist visas to work and study permits, even temporary visitor passes for performers or athletes.

Still, even if only a small percentage of those with expiring status fail to leave or transition legally, the result could be hundreds of thousands of undocumented residents.

This is why immigration experts, MPs, and the public are watching closely – and why 2026 is seen as a high-risk year for illegal presence in Canada.

Gaps

The real problem? Canada doesn’t know exactly how many people overstay.

Unlike some countries with complete exit tracking systems, Canada currently lacks a fully reconciled person-level database that matches expiring permits with confirmed departures.

So when Immigration Minister Marc Miller was asked how many people with expiring status had actually left, his answer was simple: “We don’t have that number.”

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That missing data makes it difficult to know the true scale of non-compliance. The categories are complex:

• Some leave the country on time (compliance).
• Others extend their status or switch to another category (also compliance).
• Some apply for permanent residency or file in-Canada applications.
• But some stay without any legal status – and these are the undocumented migrants everyone is concerned about.

Estimates

So how many undocumented migrants are in Canada now?

There’s no official count, but here are some recent estimates:

The surge is being driven by permit expiries, particularly work and study permits. More than 1 million work permits expired in 2025, and another 927,000 are due in 2026.

By March 2026 alone, nearly 315,000 permits will expire, creating a bottleneck in the system.

Locations

Undocumented migrants are largely concentrated in major cities. In 2025:

• Toronto was estimated to house up to 300,000 undocumented individuals.
• Other cities with large undocumented populations include Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, and Ottawa-Gatineau.

While detailed city-by-city breakdowns beyond Toronto are scarce, these urban centres are typically where jobs, community support, and anonymity are more accessible.

Enforcement

Is Canada removing people?

Yes – but not nearly at the scale required to balance the volume of expiring documents.

Here’s a look at Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) removal data:

While removals are increasing, there are still over 50,000 backlogged cases. And with nearly 3 million temporary residents in Canada as of October 2025, these numbers barely make a dent.

Enforcement capacity is growing, but experts say it cannot be the main solution.

Solutions

Ottawa has several tools to manage this growing pressure. Here are four strategies that policymakers are being urged to consider:

1. Exit Tracking

Canada needs better reconciled data showing:

• Which permits expired
• Who extended, left, or applied for PR
• Who stayed illegally

Without this, the debate remains full of assumptions and gaps.

2. Early Detection

Detecting risk earlier is key. For example, confirming international student enrollment quickly helps prevent people from slipping through the cracks unnoticed.

The same applies to work permit holders and those in high-risk visa categories.

3. Clear Pathways

Canada must offer realistic transition options for those it wants to keep:

• Workers in high-demand fields
• Graduates with Canadian experience
• Applicants with strong compliance histories

Without viable legal paths, even well-intentioned residents may become undocumented out of desperation or delay.

4. Targeted Enforcement

Instead of casting a wide net, CBSA should focus on:

• Fraud networks
• Repeat violators
• High-risk individuals

This allows limited resources to have a real impact, while minimizing unnecessary removals of low-risk residents.

For Residents

If you’re in Canada on a temporary visa or permit, here are basic steps to protect your status (not legal advice):

• Track your permit expiry date early
• Apply to extend or change your status before it expires
• Keep all documentation (work records, enrollment proof, correspondence)
• Get help from a qualified immigration consultant or lawyer if needed

Most importantly, don’t wait until your status expires. Delays can make your situation far harder to fix.

Outlook

The risk is clear: millions of permits are expiring, enforcement can’t keep up, and many people may end up in legal limbo.

The debate about undocumented migration in Canada has shifted from hypothetical to urgent. 2026 may mark a turning point in how the country balances immigration opportunity with compliance and capacity.

As the number of temporary residents grows – and pathways to permanent residency tighten – Canada must act decisively to maintain both compassion and control.

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